‘Julia’ and the denial of history

First it was David Brooks’ Harold and Erica. Now it’s the Obama campaign’s Julia. Harold, Erica and Julia are all fictitious characters born into a perpetual present. They live and grow old in a world that doesn’t change. As Michael Shear at the New York Times writes:

At age 3, Julia is enrolled in Head Start programs, thanks to Mr. Obama. By 22, she’s covered by her parents’ health care because of Mr. Obama’s health reforms. At 42, she’s getting a small-business loan from the government. When she reaches 67, she’s retired and drawing Social Security benefits.

In Julia’s world, demographic, technological and environmental change are on pause. She doesn’t need to worry about waiting for the new Intel chip to come out before she buys a new laptop. The new chip never comes. And in the same way, the government doesn’t need to worry about the effect of unforeseen new medical technologies on the cost of health care. The policies that work today will work equally well tomorrow.

There’s no ageing population problem. There’s no demographic bulge threatening Social Security or Medicare. The labour market goes on as it does now with undisrupted by technological or trade induced change. And while climate change is a constant source of anxiety, it remains lodged in a future that never comes.

Are Americans in denial about history? And if they are, how would that warp their decision making?

Corporate Sovereignty

At the Lowy Interpreter Sam Roggeveen speculates about the possibility of a company (particularly Apple) buying a country.

There has been at least on fictional treatment of a corporation taking over a country in John Brunner’s wonderful 1968 novel Stand on Zanzibar. It is based in 2010 and the corporation is transparently based on General Electric, and the country based on what would become Benin. Like much science fiction, it tends to tell us a great deal from what change it didn’t anticipate. In particular it didn’t anticipate how corporations (at least in the US) would change, and why the idea of a corporation taking over a country is less plausible than it once was.

It made sense in the 1960s to think of Corporations as great sprawling organisations that could possibly marshall the array of skills involved in running a country. Companies did have wide ranges of businesses and were more relaxed. But attitudes changed in the 1980s – maximizing return on capital meant that companies would shrink down to core products with the greatest returns, and jettisoning or spinning off other projects. In many ways I suspect this had alot to do with the movement from internally fostered management to a floating class of specialists in exploiting the principal agent problem in corporate governance. Shuffling projects between companies and identities meant an apparent increase in return on capital became the basis for bonuses – even though in aggregate there was no improvement.

Nowadays only a few companies still dominated by the shareholdings of a few (like Microsoft, News Ltd or Google) are prepared to fritter away money on unprofitable side projects. Even zaibatsu are less keen to expand the range of what they do now, and the chaebol were forcibly shrunk in the late 90s.

So we end up with a company like Apple, with a handful of very successful products that make a great deal of money it can’t do anything with. It has no other divisions to cross subsidize subsidize, or research to undertake (the company’s success has always been in packaging end products and not developing technology. They either cop the tax when they repatriate the money and pay larger dividends, or they let it sit in a bank account. They certainly wouldn’t pursue something outside their core – unless there was a tax dodge in it.

To be sure, owning a country would free the company from tax obligations were they to incorporate there and pay dividends there. But do they pay them in Apple dollars, get another country to let them use their currency or make sure the country they buy already has an easily currency? Think about what would be needed to support a new currency. They’d either start taxing, issuing debt, or make Apple dollars backable by Apple products – all of which seem foolish and still unlikely to make it a tradable currency (assuming shareholders want to buy things other than consumer electronics). But whom would let them use their currency, and countries that already have hard currencies are likely to be too large.

And of course, if shareholders remain in other countries, they’d be reliant on their resident states continuing to recognise Appledonia as a sovereign state in a way that prevents them taxing those same dividends. Maybe they’d also pay to join the WTO?

Annoyed by Google’s helpful improvements? Try the verbatim tool

Sometimes the words I type into Google’s search box are the words I want to appear in the results. For years now I’ve been using the ‘+’ operator to ensure that every result includes a particular term. But recently, without warning, it stopped working. Fortunately Google have introduced a fix with the verbatim tool. According to Google’s search blog:

In most cases, Google’s algorithms make things better for our users – but in some rare cases, we don’t find what you were looking for. In the past, we provided users with the “+” operator to help you search for specific terms. However, we found that users typed the “+” operator in less than half a percent of all searches, and two thirds of the time, it was used incorrectly. A couple of weeks ago we removed the “+” operator, encouraging the use of the double quotes, which are more likely to be used correctly.

Since then, we’ve received a lot of requests for a more deliberate way to tell Google to search using your exact terms. We’ve been listening, and starting today you’ll be able to do just that through verbatim search. With the verbatim tool on, we’ll use the literal words you entered without making normal improvements such as

  • making automatic spelling corrections
  • personalizing your search by using information such as sites you’ve visited before
  • including synonyms of your search terms (matching “car” when you search [automotive])
  • finding results that match similar terms to those in your query (finding results related to “floral delivery” when you search [flower shops])
  • searching for words with the same stem like “running” when you’ve typed [run]
  • making some of your terms optional, like “circa” in [the scarecrow circa 1963]

You can access the verbatim search tool under “More search tools” on the left-hand side.

According to Andy Baio at Wired, Google wouldn’t disclose why they phased out the ‘+’ operator "though it seems obvious that they’re paving the way for Google+ profile searches."

A Toy Model of the Indo -Asia Pacific

Like Paul Krugman part of what originally drew me into Economics was the premise behind Asimov’s Foundation books. This premise was a far future where a discipline had managed to formalise and model human society, shed light on what would happen and create preconditions for a better society to develop. It’s an absurd conceit, and even in the confines of fiction Asimov was compelled to say it could only work in populations numbering in the Quadrillions, so the peculiarities of individuals would be as unimportant as the idiosyncrasies of individual molecules of air in the laws of thermodynamics.

Economics tends to attempt to do something similar, albeit with agents rather than masses.  The results are mixed of course, but it’s a pleasure to create a few simple rules, and see how closely it approximates observed behavior in a market. It’s also true in non market settings.

This comes up because of the announced US Marine base in Darwin. Some crude simplifications of security policy might be fun even if the conclusions are not novel. I shouldn’t be posting on International Relations again, but I’m starting a new economics job soon, and I’ll have to feel out how much blogging on the topic of economics policy is appropriate. Until then more IR (or food, political theory, transport etc.).

Here’s some simplifications for behaviour.

1/ Let’s start by defining agents as sovereign states.

2/ States are primarily loss averse and seek mainly to preserve the status quo.

  • a) They seek to first to limit the chances of being invaded
  • b)to preserve existing lines of import and export (particularly goods with inelastic supply such as oil).

3/ Limiting the chance of invasion is pursued thus.

  • a) Identifying the greatest external threat and allying with it’s greatest threat. This makes invasion less attractive in accordance with 2. My enemy’s enemy is my friend.
  • b) Securing potential platforms for invasion away from the greatest threat (except where this conflicts with 2/) Continue reading

Kaggle brilliantly explained on Catalyst

Well the ABC God bless its cotton socks can’t quite bring itself to mount videos that can be embedded elsewhere – or I can’t see a way to do it, but they did a great story on Kaggle tonight – so I thought I’d post it here. Just click here and all will be revealed.

Update: someone has emailed me some code which enables me to frame the video here.

Benford’s Law: around 30% of the first digits in many real world data-sets are “1″.

Yes, folks it’s Benford’s Law – from Kaggle’s website.

One fun aspect of working with real data is that you get to observe real-life phenomenon. For example, Benford’s Law (also known as the “first-digit law”) states:

“in lists of numbers from many (but not all) real-life sources of data, the leading digit is distributed in a specific, non-uniform way. According to this law, the first digit is 1 about 30% of the time, and larger digits occur as the leading digit with lower and lower frequency, to the point where 9 as a first digit occurs less than 5% of the time.”

A simple SQL query on the training dataset gives us the raw data with which we can compare the data:

digit count  actual_probability benford_expected_probability abs diff
1 3368866  27.9% 30.1% 2.3%
2 1912850  15.8% 17.6% 1.8%
3 1483366  12.3% 12.5% 0.2%
4 1258157  10.4% 9.7% 0.7%
5 1109766  9.2% 7.9% 1.3%
6 933048  7.7% 6.7% 1.0%
7 787636  6.5% 5.8% 0.7%
8 668351  5.5% 5.1% 0.4%
9 573359  4.7% 4.6% 0.1%

Sure enough, the data from millions of shopping visits demonstrates the validity of this law.

I just thought this was an interesting application of something you hear about all the time in statistics discussions.