If you want to impress an economist, tell him you’ve got this list of people to support what you want.
Kenneth J. Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, Daniel Kahneman, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Robert Litan, Paul Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Marco Ottaviani, Charles R. Plott, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. Shiller, Vernon L. Smith, Erik Snowberg, Cass R. Sunstein, Paul C. Tetlock, Philip E. Tetlock, Hal R. Varian, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz.
Well, on looking at it isn’t that fantastic but beginning it with Ken Arrow does no harm. And there are plenty of heavy hitters there – and Australian Justin Wolfers. In any event, these guys are arguing that the US congress should get regulation out of the way of setting up legitimate prediction markets.
Indeed they should. But don’t hold your breath. The US congress was set up to slow things like this down. And the US being such a big rich country doesn’t have to worry too much. But we could do it just fine. Indeed a single state should be able to do it – like Victoria. And become a laboratory for prediction markets around the world. This is the kind of thing industry policy departments should be spruiking.
Just as Holden markets itself within GM as the most flexible in house car manufacturer of low production volume varieties of longer run vehicles so we could steal a march on the rest of the world to facilitate the emergence of prediction markets. It would fit well with our national pre-occupation with gambling.
